The War Came Back: The Fed Un-Blinks

The 60-Second Read

The war premium came back and our hedge paid. Brent sits near $86 from $72 a week ago after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed and Trump ordered a Hormuz blockade with a 20% cargo toll. We keep the long-oil-call hedge, take partial profit, roll strikes up, and flip energy to overweight. High conviction.

The Fed un-blinked and we were wrong. We flipped to an extended hold last week; Governor Waller then said the FOMC must consider tightening if core stays hot, oil re-spiked, and market-implied July hike odds ran to roughly 40-50% with September back above 60%. Stay short duration, lean long dollar. Medium-high conviction. Yahoo Finance

Gold sold off and our dip-buy was early. Spot fell to about $4,010 as the dollar firmed and real yields rose. The strategic case stands, the tactical entry did not; wait for roughly $3,900 or a real-yield peak. Medium conviction.

Scorecard: Last Week's Calls

Lead with the wins, then the misses, no varnish.

Correct. Keep a cheap long-oil-call hedge into the mid-August window while the war premium stays gone. This is the win of the week. The premium did not stay gone; it exploded. Brent has run from about $72 to roughly $86 and the hedge is deep in the money (CNBC, Reuters).
Correct. Neutral-to-constructive GBP with a Burnham coronation as base case and politics off the price. Burnham secured 349 nominations, a contest is now mathematically impossible, and cable held around 1.335 through the noise (Irish Times, Reuters). The Irish Times
Correct. Equities near records were pricing the good outcome with AI concentration risk. The risk bit. The S&P 500 slipped to 7,515 on 13 July, the Nasdaq fell 1.55%, and SK Hynix dropped more than 15% in Seoul as the AI-chip complex led the selloff (CNBC).
Wrong. Neutralise the USD long, dollar on the back foot. The dollar caught a safe-haven and hawkish-Fed bid rather than sliding; DXY held around 101 and firmed intraweek on the escalation (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance).
Wrong. Fed extended hold as base case, no September hike. The central miss. Within days the oil re-spike and Waller's hawkish turn put a July hike in play and pushed September odds back above 60%; the two-sided-with-a-dovish-tilt framing is dead for now (Reuters, Trading Economics).
Wrong. The gold dip was an entry; add on weakness. Gold kept falling, from about $4,155 to roughly $4,010, so anyone who added on the first dip is underwater. The multi-year thesis is intact; the tactical timing was not (Trading Economics, Texas Precious Metals).
Wrong. Underweight energy and defence, rotate into transports, airlines, consumer discretionary, European industrials. Exactly the wrong side. Energy ripped with crude while airlines and transports face a fresh fuel shock (CNBC).
Wrong. EUR/USD firmness as a weak-dollar story. The euro was the weakest major, sliding to one-year lows against sterling and holding only around 1.14 against a firm dollar (Exchange Rates UK, FXStreet). Exchange Rates UK
Too early to grade. Favour investment grade over high yield at about 2.75% HY OAS. Spreads barely moved; HY OAS is 2.69% as of 10 July, still no cushion, and the relative call has not been tested by a widening (ICE BofA via FRED).
Too early to grade. ECB June hike was the end of a short cycle, hold on 23 July. No meeting yet, but interim evidence is turning against the "end of cycle" read: markets now price roughly a 70% chance of a September ECB hike after the oil move (Trading Economics).
Too early to grade. RBA hold with 29 July CPI as trigger. No meeting since; the trigger event has not landed (RBA).

Hit rate: three correct, five wrong, three too early. A bad week on the macro base case, saved by the one hedge we told you to keep.

Key Levels Dashboard

Brent crude, about $86/bbl, up roughly 19% on the week. Blew through the pre-war level on the ceasefire collapse and Trump's 20% Hormuz toll (CNBC).
WTI crude, about $80/bbl, up roughly 18% on the week. Tracked Brent higher on the same supply-shock repricing (CNBC, Yahoo Finance).
Gold spot, about $4,010/oz, down roughly 3.5% on the week. Sold off as the dollar and real yields rose despite the war (Trading Economics).
Silver spot, about $58.7/oz, down roughly 5% on the week; gold/silver ratio about 69. Hit harder than gold on rate-hike fears and its industrial leverage (FXStreet).
Federal Reserve funds target, 3.50-3.75%, unchanged. July hike now roughly a coin toss and September back above 60% after Waller and the oil spike (Federal Reserve, CME via Reuters).
ECB deposit rate, 2.25%, unchanged. Markets price about a 70% chance of a September hike into the 23 July meeting (ECB, Trading Economics).
BoE Bank Rate, 3.75%, unchanged. Markets now fully price a hike by year-end, most likely December (Bank of England, Trading Economics). TRADING ECONOMICS
RBA cash rate, 4.35%, unchanged. Q2 CPI on 29 July remains the trigger for 11 August (RBA).
RBI repo rate, 5.25%, unchanged. Held 6 June on a neutral stance; inflation forecast raised to 5.1%, growth cut to 6.6%; next decision 4-6 August (RBI, Trading Economics). FXStreet
US jobs (June), +57k / 4.2%, no new print. Still the last read; July payrolls land 7 August (BLS).
S&P 500, about 7,515, down roughly 0.3% on the week. AI-chip weakness and the oil shock capped the index just off records (CNBC).
DXY, about 101, roughly flat. Firm on safe-haven demand, contradicting last week's weak-dollar call (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance).
GBP/USD, about 1.335, roughly flat. Politics stayed off the price as Burnham was confirmed (Exchange Rates UK).
AUD/USD, about 0.69, roughly flat. Soft iron ore and record Chinese port stocks still cap it (Yahoo Finance).
EUR/USD, about 1.14, roughly flat to softer. The euro was the weakest major, at one-year lows versus sterling (FXStreet).
USD/INR, about 95.65, rupee near record lows. Higher crude and the strong dollar drove a 27-paise drop on 13 July (HDFC Sky). HDFC Sky
Nifty 50, about 24,210, roughly flat. Recovered a 700-point Sensex intraday drop as IT stocks rose on the weaker rupee (Univest). Univest
US HY OAS, about 2.69%, roughly 6bp tighter. Still far inside the 20-year average near 4.9%, still no cushion (ICE BofA via FRED).

Executive Summary

For one week we thought the Hormuz trade was closed. It was not. The US-Iran ceasefire collapsed on 8 July, and by the weekend of 11-12 July the two sides had exchanged a third and fourth round of strikes, Iran had declared the strait closed "until further notice," and Iran had fired on Gulf states including Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain. On 13 July Trump announced a reinstated blockade on Iranian shipping and a 20% toll on all cargo transiting Hormuz, set to take effect 14 July. Brent gapped from the low $70s to the mid $80s. The relief rally we described as "complete" reversed into a supply shock. CNNYahoo Finance

That single move rewired everything downstream. The disinflation story reversed with it. Today's June CPI is a backward-looking snapshot of a June that no longer exists: it printed close to consensus, with headline down about 0.1% on the month and near 3.9% year over year on the gasoline reversal, but core held sticky around 2.9%. With crude back up and Waller signalling a possible near-term tightening, the Fed hike we buried last week is back on the table, and Chair Warsh testifies to Congress today and tomorrow into exactly that backdrop. The dollar firmed, gold and silver fell on higher real yields, and the AI-chip complex that had carried the S&P to records sold off.

We got the tail hedge right and the base case wrong. The honest read: our de-escalation regime call did not survive contact with events, and only the cheap insurance we insisted on carrying kept the week from being ugly. We now run the book the other way: overweight energy, short duration, long dollar, defensive in equities, and patient on adding gold.

Signal-Filter Takeaways for Clients

The datable tail became the live event. We kept telling you the risk had a date, mid-August. It arrived early. The lesson is to keep paying for tail insurance when it is cheap and the catalyst is identifiable, even when the base case says calm.
Energy and inflation are not behind us. Last week we called the May PCE high the lagging high-water mark. That is now wrong on a forward basis: the July inflation prints, out in August, will carry the oil re-spike. Position for higher-for-longer, not for cuts.
The cross-asset regime is risk-off with a hawkish tilt. That favours cash, T-bills, the dollar and energy over duration, rich growth equities and precious metals in the near term.

01 Middle East: Iran, Hormuz and Lebanon

What happened. The framework broke. Trump declared the ceasefire over, and after Iran struck three tankers near Hormuz in early July, the US ran multiple rounds of strikes on Iranian radar, missile and drone sites. Iran retaliated against five Gulf states and declared the strait closed on 11-12 July. On 13 July Trump announced the US would reimpose a blockade on Iranian vessels and levy a 20% toll on all Hormuz cargo, effective 14 July, branding the US "the guardian of the Hormuz Strait." Iran's foreign minister Araghchi countered that "20% is of course too much" while insisting Iran remains the strait's guardian. This is a direct flip from last week's core call that the framework would hold. It did not. CNNYahoo Finance

Separately, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was buried in Mashhad on 10 July after six days of ceremonies. His son and named successor Mojtaba Khamenei has still not appeared in public, not even at the private burial, feeding succession uncertainty. The Lebanon track is fragile: the US floated pilot zones to restore Lebanese sovereignty, but Israel's defence minister rejected a broad withdrawal from the south. euronews + 2

Why it matters. The US EIA puts 2024 Hormuz flows at about 20 million barrels a day, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and around 27% of global maritime oil trade, with only about 2.6 million b/d of Saudi and UAE pipeline capacity able to bypass the strait. Transit counts have collapsed, with crossings down more than half week over week and the IMO advising ships to avoid the strait. The mid-August toll-free window is now moot, overtaken by Trump's own 20% US toll and Iran's counter-demand for fees. This is a live shooting conflict layered on a contested chokepoint under an untested new supreme leader.

Scenarios

Base case. The strikes continue in an on-again, off-again pattern while back-channel talks grind on. Physical barrels keep moving via workarounds and Omani-water routes at punitive insurance cost. Brent holds a $78-90 range with spike risk. Probability-weighted, this is where we sit.
Downside. A tanker is sunk or a Gulf energy facility is hit hard, the strait genuinely closes for a sustained period, Brent spikes past $100, and the stagflation tail returns in force.
Upside. A face-saving toll compromise emerges, strikes pause, and the premium bleeds out over weeks back toward $75.

Market implications

Asset class. Reduce net risk. Barbell cash and energy against trimmed rich equities.
Currency and flows. Safe-haven flows into the dollar and the Swiss franc; pressure on oil-importer currencies, the rupee first.
Sector rotation. Overweight energy and defence, the exact reverse of last week. Underweight airlines, transports and energy-intensive consumer names.
Entry and exit. Take partial profit on the oil-call hedge, roll strikes up, keep a tail position through the conflict.

What to watch. Whether the 20% toll actually takes effect and how Iran responds, any tanker loss, and whether Mojtaba surfaces.

House view. We are overweight energy and long the tail through Hormuz, having flipped from underweight; the framework-holds call is reversed and we say so plainly. High conviction near-term.

02 Energy Markets: Oil, OPEC+, Insurance

What happened. Brent is near $86 and WTI near $80, up roughly a fifth on the week, the highest since mid-June. The driver is entirely geopolitical: the ceasefire collapse plus Trump's toll and blockade. Against that, the physical picture is still loose. OPEC+ agreed on 5 July, at a virtual meeting of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, to add 188,000 bpd for August, with Saudi Arabia and Russia each contributing 62,000 bpd, the fifth consecutive monthly increase, and OPEC cut its 2026 demand-growth forecast to 800,000 bpd. War-risk insurance for Hormuz transits has settled around 5% of hull value per voyage, described by the Lloyd's Market Association's Neil Roberts as the "new market norm," versus roughly 0.25% before the crisis.

Why it matters. This is a premium-on-paper spike sitting on top of a fundamentally well-supplied market. That tension is the whole trade. If the shooting eases, the surplus reasserts itself fast; if a tanker goes down, the spike extends violently. The next OPEC+ meeting is 2 August, and the group has kept full flexibility to pause or reverse increases.

Scenarios

Base case. Brent $78-90 while the conflict simmers and barrels keep flowing at high insurance cost.
Downside for prices. Durable de-escalation plus OPEC+ additions and record inventories drag Brent back toward the low $70s.

Market implications

Asset class. Long energy equities and keep the crude-call tail.
Currency and flows. Petrocurrency support; importer-currency pressure.
Sector rotation. Integrated majors and oil services over refiners and airlines.
Entry and exit. Scale out of energy longs above $95 Brent; that is where the surplus and demand destruction start to bite.

What to watch. The 2 August OPEC+ decision, Hormuz transit counts, and insurance quotes.

House view. Tactically long energy and crude into the conflict, but ready to fade strength above $95; the balance underneath is loose. Medium-high conviction.

03 United States: Inflation, Jobs and the Fed

What happened. June CPI, released this morning, landed roughly in line: headline fell about 0.1% on the month to near 3.9% year over year as gasoline dropped roughly 10% in June, but core held sticky near 2.9%. That June softness is already stale because the oil reversal since 8 July will lift July's numbers. Governor Waller said on 13 July that the FOMC would need to consider tightening if core comes in hot, a hawkish jolt from a previously dovish voice. Chair Warsh testifies to the House today and the Senate tomorrow, his first congressional appearances, and has pointedly refused forward guidance. This reverses last week's call: we flipped to an extended hold, and the hold thesis has been overtaken.

Why it matters. The Fed reaction function has re-hardened. Market-implied odds of a July hike jumped to roughly 40-50% from near zero weeks ago, and September is back above 60%. Two-year yields pushed to multi-month highs. The June dot plot already showed nine of eighteen officials projecting a 2026 hike; the oil shock hands the hawks their evidence.

Scenarios

Base case. The Fed holds at 3.50-3.75% on 28-29 July but sharpens hawkish language, keeping a September hike live.
Downside. A hot July core print or a further oil spike forces a hike as soon as this month and pushes the dollar and yields higher, hitting long duration and rich equities.

Market implications

Asset class. T-bills and short duration over long bonds; cash is a position.
Currency and flows. Dollar-supportive; we lean long USD, a flip from last week's neutralise call.
Sector rotation. Away from long-duration growth and toward value, energy and financials.
Entry and exit. Fade duration-add temptation; wait for a genuine growth scare before extending.

What to watch. Warsh's testimony tone, June PCE on 25 July, and the 28-29 July FOMC.

House view. Short duration and lean long dollar; higher-for-longer is back and our hold call is reversed. Medium-high conviction.

04 Europe: ECB and the Euro

What happened. No policy change, but the setup shifted. The ECB deposit rate sits at 2.25% after the June hike, and after the oil re-spike markets now price roughly a 70% chance of a September hike, a hawkish repricing versus the dovish tone struck at the early-July Sintra forum. Final June HICP is due 17 July; the June flash was 2.8% headline, 2.4% core. The euro was the weakest major on the week, sliding to one-year lows against sterling and holding near 1.14 against a firm dollar.

Why it matters. The ECB explicitly said in June it cannot look through the energy shock, and staff had already revised 2026 headline inflation up to 3.0%. A sustained oil spike feeds directly into that concern and keeps a further hike live at 23 July or September.

Scenarios

Base case. Hold on 23 July with hawkish risk language; live September hike.
Downside for the euro. The dollar keeps its safe-haven bid and EUR/USD tests 1.13.

Market implications

Asset class. European duration less attractive than a week ago.
Currency and flows. Euro capped by dollar strength despite hawkish ECB pricing.
Sector rotation. European energy and defence over energy-intensive industrials, another reversal of last week.
Entry and exit. No fresh euro longs until the dollar bid fades.

What to watch. Final HICP on 17 July, Lagarde on 23 July, and any Schnabel commentary.

House view. Neutral euro with a downside skew while the dollar leads; hawkish ECB pricing is real but not enough to lift EUR/USD here. Medium conviction.

05 United Kingdom: Bank of England and GBP

What happened. Burnham is confirmed. He gathered 349 nominations by 13 July, making a contest mathematically impossible, and will be crowned at the 17 July special conference before becoming PM on 20 July when Starmer resigns. Ed Miliband has emerged as the likely chancellor. Sterling held around 1.335, and money markets now fully price a BoE hike by year-end, most likely December, with a 25% chance of a second, as the oil spike lifts UK inflation risk. This vindicates last week's neutral-to-constructive GBP call and the coronation base case.

Why it matters. The UK imports most of its energy, so the oil shock hits UK inflation harder than most peers, pushing the BoE hawkish into the 30 July decision. The political risk premium that once weighed on sterling has largely drained.

Scenarios

Base case. Smooth Burnham transition, BoE holds 3.75% on 30 July with a hawkish lean toward a later hike.
Downside. A gilt-unfriendly Burnham fiscal signal ahead of the autumn budget reintroduces a term premium.

Market implications

Asset class. Gilts squeezed between higher inflation risk and autumn-budget fiscal worry; stay cautious on duration.
Currency and flows. Constructive GBP on rate-hike pricing and reduced political risk.
Sector rotation. UK energy and defensives over rate-sensitive domestics.
Entry and exit. Hold constructive sterling; reassess on the first Burnham fiscal signal.

What to watch. The 17 July confirmation, the 20 July handover, Burnham's first fiscal signals, and the 30 July BoE.

House view. Constructive GBP, cautious gilts; the coronation call worked and we keep it. Medium conviction.

06 Australia: RBA and AUD (China linkage)

What happened. No RBA meeting since 16 June; the cash rate holds at 4.35%. Iron ore is near one-year lows around $96-105 a tonne with Chinese port stocks at records, near 173 million tonnes across 47 major ports as of 9 July per Mysteel, though prices bounced on a planned 16 July strike at BHP's Port Hedland terminal. The China Mineral Resources Group dispute with Fortescue escalated, with the buyer instructing mills to avoid new dollar cargoes of Fortescue's Super Special Fines. AUD/USD holds around 0.69.

Why it matters. Australia is still the developed-market inflation outlier, and the oil spike adds imported inflation pressure into the 29 July Q2 CPI that drives the 11 August meeting. Soft Chinese steel demand and record ore inventories cap the currency and the terms of trade.

Scenarios

Base case. RBA holds; a hot Q2 CPI keeps a hike on the table.
Downside for AUD. Weak China data and soft iron ore drag AUD/USD toward 0.67.

Market implications

Asset class. Neutral Australian duration ahead of CPI.
Currency and flows. AUD capped by China and ore; modest oil-inflation offset.
Sector rotation. Energy over iron-ore miners.
Entry and exit. No fresh AUD longs before 29 July CPI.

What to watch. The 29 July Q2 CPI, the Port Hedland strike, Chinese steel and property data, and the Fortescue dispute.

House view. Neutral AUD with a hawkish RBA tail; the China drag outweighs the oil-inflation lift. Medium conviction.

07 India: RBI, INR and Foreign Flows

What happened. New section this week. The RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% on 6 June for a third straight meeting on a neutral stance, raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.1% and cut growth to 6.6%, citing the Middle East war. The next MPC is 4-6 August. The rupee fell to about 95.65 per dollar on 13 July, near record lows, as the oil spike and strong dollar hit the current-account math. The Nifty 50 sits around 24,210 after recovering a sharp intraday drop, with IT names rising on the weaker rupee. The RBI is unwinding a record short-dollar forward book built to defend the currency.

Why it matters. India is the cleanest oil-importer loss in this regime. The prior windfall from Brent falling to the low $70s has reversed with crude back near $86, widening the import bill, pressuring the rupee and reviving imported inflation just as the RBI had turned cautious. That said, India retains structural pull: China+1 manufacturing relocation and resilient domestic demand keep foreign interest in Indian equities alive even as near-term flows wobble on the oil shock.

Scenarios

Base case. RBI holds 5.25% on 4-6 August; the rupee drifts to 96 on oil and dollar strength; Nifty range-trades with IT outperforming.
Downside. A sustained Brent move above $95 widens the deficit, forces heavier RBI intervention and pressures both the rupee and equities.

Market implications

Asset class. Cautious on Indian duration while inflation risk rises; selective on equities.
Currency and flows. Rupee on the back foot; watch FPI flows for oil-driven outflows.
Sector rotation. Indian IT exporters and energy producers over oil-sensitive importers and downstream consumers.
Entry and exit. Use rupee weakness past 96 to add selective large-cap exporters; avoid oil-import-levered names.

What to watch. The 4-6 August RBI decision, Brent's path, USD/INR at 96, and Q1 FY27 earnings from Infosys and Wipro.

House view. Establishing the section neutral-to-cautious on Indian assets near-term given the oil-import hit, constructive structurally on the China+1 and domestic-demand story; favour exporters over importers. Medium conviction.

08 Precious Metals and Safe-Haven Assets

What happened. Gold fell to about $4,010 and silver to about $58.7, both down on the week, with the gold/silver ratio around 69. War usually lifts gold; this time the dollar and real yields rose faster, and rate-hike fears dominated the safe-haven bid. Gold and silver ETF holdings fell to multi-month lows as investors trimmed positions. Central-bank buying remains a structural support: the People's Bank of China added 480,000 troy ounces (14.93 tonnes) in June, its largest monthly increase since October 2023 and its 20th straight month of buying, lifting holdings to 2,346 tonnes, per State Administration of Foreign Exchange data released 7 July.

Why it matters. This is the textbook case where higher nominal rates and a firmer dollar beat the geopolitical bid. Our add-the-dip call was early; the metal kept falling. The multi-year central-bank accumulation story is unchanged, but the tactical entry needs a better level or a real-yield peak.

Scenarios

Base case. Gold consolidates $3,900-4,150 while rate fears and the dollar cap it.
Upside. A genuine strait closure or a dovish Fed surprise reignites the safe-haven trade above $4,200.

Market implications

Asset class. Hold strategic gold; do not chase.
Currency and flows. Dollar strength is the near-term headwind.
Sector rotation. Prefer gold to silver given silver's industrial and rate leverage.
Entry and exit. Add on a move toward $3,900 or a clear real-yield peak, not before.

What to watch. Real yields, the dollar, ETF flows and the World Gold Council reserve data.

House view. Strategically long gold, tactically patient; we were early adding the dip and wait for a better level. Medium conviction.

09 Sovereign and Credit Conditions

What happened. US HY OAS is 2.69% as of 10 July per the ICE BofA index on FRED, a touch tighter on the week and still far inside the 20-year average near 4.9%. IG remains very tight. There is still no cushion for a shock, and the shock catalyst just changed: an oil-driven growth scare or a hot-inflation-forced hike is now the more likely widening trigger, on top of heavy 2026 IG supply from AI and data-centre financing. Saudi Arabia's fiscal stress remains the sovereign watch item after a record Q1 deficit.

Why it matters. Spreads this tight price perfection into a market that just lost its benign macro backdrop. The asymmetry is poor: little to gain from carry, a lot to lose if the regime forces a repricing.

Scenarios

Base case. Spreads grind modestly wider as the oil and rate shock filters through; no dislocation yet.
Downside. A hike plus a growth scare gaps HY OAS toward 3.5-4% and reprices the whole complex.

Market implications

Asset class. IG over HY; conservative carry; avoid over-levered issuers.
Currency and flows. Watch for outflows from HY funds if oil stays elevated.
Sector rotation. Favour higher-quality, shorter-duration credit.
Entry and exit. Start scaling into credit risk only past roughly 3.25-3.5% HY OAS.

What to watch. HY OAS levels, AI and data-centre issuance volumes, and any default upticks.

House view. IG over HY with a widening catalyst now live; buy credit weakness only on a real spread move past 3.25-3.5%. Medium conviction.

10 Other Flashpoints

Ukraine and Russia. Trump said he would back a renewed sanctions push targeting buyers of Russian oil and gas, a lever that gains bite with Hormuz disrupted and global crude tight. Watch for follow-through legislation.
G7 cohesion. Still fragile amid the Ukraine file and NATO frictions, and now stress-tested by a fresh Middle East war and Trump's unilateral Hormuz toll.
US politics. The inflation and oil shock lands in a midterm year, with the 3 November vote sharpening the political stakes of every Fed and energy decision.
AI and semiconductor concentration. The risk we flagged materialised: SK Hynix fell more than 15% in Seoul, Samsung dropped double digits, and European chip names followed. Thin breadth remains the market's key vulnerability.
Cyber. No major market-moving incident this week; retained as a standing watch item.

Upcoming Events and Catalyst Calendar

14 July. US June CPI (released), Warsh House testimony, major bank earnings; Trump's 20% Hormuz toll and blockade set to take effect. The inflation and Fed setup for the whole quarter.
15 July. Warsh Senate Banking testimony. Second read on the Fed reaction function.
16 July. UK May GDP; Wipro Q1 results. UK growth and Indian IT read-through.
17 July. UK Labour special conference confirms Burnham; euro area final June HICP. Political handover clarity and the ECB's inflation input.
20 July. Starmer resigns as PM; Burnham takes office. UK leadership transition complete.
22-23 July. Infosys Q1 results. India IT and rupee-earnings signal.
23 July. ECB decision. Hold-versus-hike test after the oil spike.
25 July. US June PCE. The Fed's preferred gauge into the FOMC.
28-29 July. FOMC decision. Hold with hawkish risk; September hike live.
29 July. Australia Q2 CPI. Trigger for the 11 August RBA.
30 July. BoE Bank Rate decision. Hawkish hold expected.
2 August. OPEC+ meeting. Whether the group pauses additions given the spike.
4-6 August. RBI MPC decision. Hold likely amid the oil-driven inflation risk.
7 August. US July jobs. First payrolls to reflect the new regime.
11 August. RBA decision. CPI-dependent.
Late August. Jackson Hole symposium. Warsh's framing of higher-for-longer.
3 November. US midterms. The political overlay on Fed and energy policy.

Recommendations (Staged)

Immediate. Take partial profit on the long-oil-call hedge, roll strikes up, and keep a tail position through the Hormuz conflict.
Immediate. Flip energy from underweight to overweight; add integrated majors and oil services; cut airline and transport exposure.
Immediate. Lean long dollar and hold cash in T-bills; stay short duration.
Near-term. Hold strategic gold but do not add until roughly $3,900 or a clear real-yield peak.
Near-term. Keep IG over HY; begin scaling into credit risk only past 3.25-3.5% HY OAS.
Near-term. In equities, underweight rich AI and semis, favour value, energy, financials and defensives.
Near-term. Favour Indian IT exporters over oil-import-levered names; use rupee weakness past 96 to add selective large caps.
Structural. Retain gold as a multi-year allocation on the central-bank bid, sized to add on weakness rather than chased.

Thresholds That Change the Calls

Brent sustained above $95. Scale out of energy longs; the surplus and demand destruction begin to dominate.
Durable de-escalation and a strait reopening. Cut the oil hedge, rotate back toward transports and consumer, and re-neutralise energy.
A hot July core CPI or a July Fed hike. Extend the short-duration and long-dollar stance; add to defensives.
HY OAS past 3.5%. Begin adding credit risk into the widening.
Gold toward $3,900 or a real-yield peak. Add to the strategic position.
A gilt-unfriendly Burnham fiscal signal. Underweight gilts and trim sterling into the autumn budget.
USD/INR past 96 with heavy FPI outflows. Turn more cautious on Indian equities beyond exporters.

Markers of Concern

Levels are a dated snapshot taken around the 13-14 July sessions and move continuously; treat them as reference, not the current tick.
Scenarios are probabilities, not forecasts; the base case is where we sit, not where we are certain.
The June CPI is a backward-looking read of a month whose energy conditions have already reversed; the July prints will look materially different.
This is a live shooting conflict with an untested Iranian succession; headline risk is two-sided and can invalidate any near-term call overnight.
Our conviction on the reversed calls is high on direction but humble on timing, given how fast last week's regime broke.